In 2025, global supply chains reached a clear inflection point. Regulatory shifts, geopolitical disruption and sustained financial pressure converged to expose new vulnerabilities across supplier networks. Labor availability challenges, transportation constraints and rising costs only intensified the strain, testing whether the systems organizations depend on could truly perform under pressure.
For the third consecutive year, Sphera’s annual Supply Chain Risk Report confirms what many leaders are already experiencing, but frames it in a new way. We are seeing a confidence paradox in supply chain risk management: near-universal confidence in risk data, dashboards and early-warning capabilities, alongside rising disruption, loss and supplier-level risk.
Our research, based on Sphera’s proprietary supply chain risk intelligence and survey data from 800 Chief Procurement Officers and Chief Supply Chain Officers across the US, UK, Germany and Canada, shows that confidence is high. Outcomes, however, are lagging. Nearly all respondents report confidence in the completeness and timeliness of supplier risk data, yet 73% experienced financial or operational losses due to supply chain disruptions in the past 12 months. On average, organizations faced more than three material disruptions during that period.
Supplier viability sits at the center of this paradox. Incident data shows that supplier viability risk remains the largest category by volume for the third consecutive year, increasing by approximately 10% in 2025, with a sharp 20% spike in Q3 highlighting accelerating late-year financial stress among suppliers. At the same time, quality and performance risk is the fastest-growing category, while sustainability and regulatory risk continues to rise. These pressures are not isolated, they are increasingly clustered around financially strained suppliers.
What makes this moment different is not a lack of awareness or intent. Most organizations have already implemented traditional resilience measures, from supplier diversification and near-shoring to expanded monitoring tools and AI-driven insights. Yet disruption persists because foundational constraints remain unresolved: inconsistent Tier-2+ data quality, fragmented systems, limited supplier cooperation and slow, manual pre-decision risk assessment cycles.
This is where the gap between insight and outcome emerges. When baseline risk levels are already high, even modest increases in supplier financial stress can cascade quickly into quality failures, regulatory noncompliance and delivery breakdowns. Confidence in reports and dashboards is no longer enough when risk decisions are routinely challenged by boards, CFOs and senior leadership.
Resolving the confidence paradox requires a shift in focus – from confidence to proof. Treating supplier viability as a foundational risk allows organizations to connect financial, quality and sustainability signals earlier, understand their downstream implications and respond before issues escalate. Effective supply chain risk management (SCRM) is not a passive reporting exercise. It is a continuous discipline grounded in verifiable data, clear accountability and decision-ready evidence that can stand up to sustained governance scrutiny.
When supported by trusted N-tier visibility, scalable supplier engagement and validated data integrity, SCRM enables faster, more confident decisions across procurement, operations, compliance and leadership teams. Managed well, suppliers under pressure can be identified early and engaged constructively — before risk turns into disruption.
Every business decision carries both opportunity and risk. When those risks are not only understood, but proven, traceable and acted on with intent, they become more than just threats. They become a catalyst for resilience, credibility and long-term performance.
— Paul
