The 29th Conference of Parties, COP29, is now underway in Baku, Azerbaijan. It takes place in what is now known as the hottest year on record, with temperature increases that have surpassed the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement. Additionally, leaders from some of the world’s major economies are not attending the conference. How will these developments affect COP29’s outcomes?
Global Stocktake follow-up
The primary goal of COP29 is to accelerate global efforts to combat climate change. COP29 will build upon the insights of the Global Stocktake (GST), a comprehensive review of progress toward the Paris Agreement that took place last year at COP28.
The GST outlines all points under negotiation and serves as a basis for nations as they develop their climate action plans. Using the stocktake, the conference can determine whether parties are meeting emission reduction targets individually and collectively.
In addition, countries will need to mobilize financial support for actions and initiatives to promote clean energy and sustainable development. Overall, COP29 aims to build on the momentum of the Global Stocktake and take steps to address the climate crisis.
Enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
In early November, the European climate agency Copernicus reported that 2024 temperatures breached the threshold set by the Paris Agreement. This treaty obligates participating countries to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
COP29 will most certainly call upon countries to submit more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Developed by individual countries, NDCs outline national climate targets and actions and collectively form the backbone of global climate action.
The conference is focusing on effective implementation of NDCs. Parties at COP29 will seek to improve the transparency and accountability of NDCs, so as to hold countries responsible for their commitments.
Furthermore, COP29 will address the equity and fairness aspects of NDCs by looking at how the burden of climate action should be shared among countries. Historical emissions, current capabilities and future development needs all play a role in the distribution.
Climate finance
Climate finance is the centerpiece of COP29, frequently referred to as the “finance COP.” One key issue will be the fulfillment of the $100 billion annual pledge, originally made by developed economies at COP26, to support developing economies in their climate efforts.
With the pledge only slowly being met, COP29 aims to establish a new, more ambitious financing target called the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). This intends to define the scale of financial resources needed to support climate action in the coming years.
COP29 will also address ways to operationalize the Loss and Damage fund to assist developing countries in managing the adverse effects of climate change. Pledges of $792 million were made at last year’s conference.
However, observers have noted that finance leaders from numerous prestigious banks, insurance and asset management institutions are skipping this year’s event. Some are sending their chief sustainability officers or senior managers, perhaps because this year’s summit will concentrate on working out the “nitty-gritty” details.
Leaders of major economies, notably Brazil, India, Germany, Britain, France, China and the U.S., are also passing on COP29. It remains to be seen whether these absences affect conference outcomes.
Energy and technology matters
Although the focus is on finance, energy generation and efficiency are still on the table. In the final hours of last year’s conference, nations agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels” for the first time ever. Parties also pledged to double the global rate of energy efficiency, triple renewable energy generation capacity and invest significantly in nuclear power.
Cutting greenhouse gas emissions remains central to the mission of capping global warming. At COP29, parties are expected to deliver real-world plans and strategies. This involves support for climate technologies such as wind, solar and hydropower and for energy-efficient practices.
Mitigation and adaptation
Another aspect of climate finance discussions at COP29 will be the balance between mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation efforts, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, have traditionally received more attention. COP29 is likely to prioritize adaptation finance, which supports vulnerable countries in coping with the impacts of climate change.
This includes funding for building resilience to extreme weather events, developing climate-resilient infrastructure and transitioning to sustainable agriculture. Additionally, COP29 will explore innovative financing mechanisms. These include carbon markets and green bonds, to mobilize private sector investment for climate action.
Just transition
COP29 will also likely emphasize the concept of “just transition.” This means that the shift toward a low-carbon economy should not create new injustices. Any burdens associated with climate action should be distributed fairly.
Discussions will likely center on developing strategies to support vulnerable communities or indigenous populations. But workers in fossil fuel industries are also affected by the energy transition and may need retraining programs or social safety nets.
Ultimately, COP29 aims to advance the implementation of just transition strategies, so the fight against climate change is also a fight for social justice and equity.
Stay tuned for our next blog on COP29, which will look at the second week of activities and the overall plan that emerges from the conference.
